Monday, August 14, 2017

China July 2017

Image result for BYD Song DM
The Song twins are here to rock the stage!


BYD Song is China’s Model Y

Some 44.700 new EV's started zooming the Chinese streets last month, the second best month ever, with the market growing at 37% regarding the same month last year and pulling the YTD count to over 227.000 units, up 40% YoY, while regarding overall stock, a milestone has been reached, with over one million plug-ins being registered in China, from 2009 until now, the first market to reach a seven-digit figure, representing 40% of all plug-car stock in the World (Around 2.6 millions).

As consequence of all this, the PEV market share grew once again, this time to 1.6%, beating last year record (1.45%), expect that as the year progresses and sales expand, the Chinese PEV market surpasses the 2% share by year end.

This is still a highly protected market, where 93% of sales belong to domestic brands. Of the 7% left for foreign brands, 4% belong to Tesla, 2% to BMW, and the remaining 1% divided by all other auto makers. Interestingly, the Buick Velite 5 (Thinly disguised Chinese Chevrolet Volt) was for the first time the best-selling foreign nameplate in China, with 382 units.

In July the much awaited BYD Song PHEV won its first best-selling award, with over 5.000 deliveries, beating both the Zhidou D2 EV and the BAIC EC-Series, while BYD itself has beaten for the second time in a row the Manufacturers all-time sales record, by registering 11.207 units, stepping up the pace and increasing the distance to the runner-up Beijing Auto.


Here’s July Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

 Image result for BYD Song DM
#1 – BYD Song PHEV: This is BYD’s “Model Y”, a VW Tiguan-sized SUV, here in plug-in hybrid version (The BEV had 1.500 deliveries in July, its first full sales month), in only its third full sales month, it registered 5.069 units, the second best score ever for a BYD model, with the Tang record of 5.503 units (Back in December ’15) probably being beaten this summer. This is a disruptive model (Why? Plug-in SUV, 0-100kms/h in 4.9s, price tag of 41300 USD…), I believe the full potential of this version should be around 5-6.000 units/month, adding some 3-4.000 units from the BEV version, it should be enough to have the Song to the tune of 10.000 units/month, both versions counted. And these are 2017 targets, by 2018 BYD should have even more ambitious goals for it and new models to add to their lineup, but more on that below…

Image result for BAIC EC
#2 – BAIC EC-Series: A consistent seller this year, the BAIC EC-Series, formerly known as EC180, sold 4.068 units in July, the little city EV seems to have found its natural sales level around 4.000 units per month, which is a bit disappointing, as this is a decent design, with competitive specs (20 kWh battery) and price (19.000€).Will it be enough to win the 2017 Best Seller award? Doubt it, but if so, it would be a first for BAIC and the first time since 2013 that a BYD wouldn’t win the trophy.

Image result for zhidou d2 ev
#3 – Zhidou D2 EV: Bare-basics city vehicle that doesn’t inspire anyone, but continues to be delivered in large quantities (3.796 units in July), probably thanks to big fleet deals. This vehicle is sold as a Quadricycle (Think Renault Twizy class) in some European countries, with the following specs: 12 kWh battery, 120 kms range, 90 kms max.speed, all this for some 16.000€.

Image result for Chery eQ 
#4 – Chery eQ EV: The funky Chery eQ sold 3.264 units in July, allowing it to stay in the Top 5, this is one of my favorite Chinese urban EVs, for 22.000 Euro before incentives you get a decently equipped city car, with 22kWh battery, with the only drawback being the weak engine (56 hp, 100 kms/h top speed). Add a bit more power to the engine and you could have a valuable competitor to the current crop of worldwide city EV's, as the VW e-Up! is pricey, the Mitsubishi triplets are showing their age, and the Smart Forfour ED…Well, it looks too goofy for my taste (What were Smart designers smoking when did this last generation?!?).

Image result for BYD e5
#5 – BYD e5: The Plain Jane BYD e5 sedan continues delivering decent performances, with 2.946 units being registered last month. A favorite among taxi companies, along with its e6 older brother, the low key e5 actually has a lot going for it, spec-wise: 305 kms range from a 48 kWh battery and a healthy 218 hp, all for 230.000 Yuan (33.400$). A wolf in sheep’s clothing, isn’t it?
  
Image result for BYD Yuan
Yuan: BYD's next piece of the puzzle
  
Year-to-Date Ranking – Hear that? It’s the Song coming.

The big news were of course the rise and rise of the BYD Song PHEV, jumping four positions to #4, becoming at the same time the Best Selling SUV and PHEV in the ranking.

Expect in August the Song to surpass its e5 sibling and reach the podium, as for the pole position, the difference could be too big to cut short, but with BYD, you never know, right?

A reference for the Chery eQ, climbing two positions to #7, while the Changan Benni EV also did well, joining the Top 10 last month.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (21%, up 2%) is cementing its position at the Iron Throne, distancing itself from the previous leader BAIC (17%), with Warp Speed now engaged, expect BYD to distance itself from the competition even further.

In Third Place we have Zhidou, with 10% share, but with SAIC now on its tail (9%, up 2%), it will be only a matter of time until the Shanghai-based manufacturer surpasses it, in its bid to become the Third of China’s “Big 3 PEV” club.

As a side note, if there were bets surrounding the Global Best Selling Manufacturer in 2017, I would go with BYD, yes, most are betting on Tesla, yes, Tesla is ahead by 7.000 units, but I would still bet of them, not only because of the Song twins, but in a couple of months, BYD will also launch the Yuan crossover (Think Opel Mokka/Buick Encore) in both BEV and PHEV versions, adding some precious thousands of units to the current ones.

Also, in 2018 the only company able to steal the show from Tesla will be…BYD. A new Tang and the Song MPV are scheduled for launch, adding even more volume to the company sales. I’m not saying it will, but it is the only company with enough pace to prevent Tesla from finally winning the Best Selling PEV Manufacturer trophy, something it has been pursuing without success since 2008.

Incidentally, it is the same number of years that the Boston Celtics have been without trophies.

Will both Tesla and the Celtics break the spell in 2018?



Pl
China
July
YTD
%
1
Zhidou D2 EV
3796
22489
10
2
BAIC EC-Series
4068
22007
10
3
BYD e5
2946
13772
6
4
BYD Song PHEV
5069
11907
5
5
SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV
1606
10811
5
6
JAC iEV6S
2078
10100
4
7
Chery eQ
3264
9869
4
8
Geely Emgrand EV
1715
9697
4
9
BYD Tang
977
8479
4
10
Changan Benni EV
1645
7709
3
11
JMC E100
1441
7577
3
12
Zotye E200
1281
7230
3
13
BAIC EU-Series
1123
6814
3
14
Tesla Model S   e)
160
5295
2
15
Zotye Cloud EV
1079
4766
2
16
Tesla Model X   e)
150
4664
2
17
BYD Qin EV300
145
4262
2
18
Horki 300E   e)
500
4199
3
19
JMC E200
257
3914
2
20
BAIC EX200
150
3727
2
Others
11229
48684

TOTAL
44679
227972

UK Q1 2017 (Top 5 Draft)



Nissan Leaf Jumps ahead

An impressive 12.526 plug-ins were sold in the Q1 2017, up 10% YoY, with the EV Share at a record 1.6%, up from 1.5% in 2016.

Looking at the models ranking, the Mitsu Outlander PHEV is surprisingly being beaten by the Nissan Leaf, with the Nissan model leading the ranking for the first time since 2013.

A good performance for the BMW 330e, in the Third Spot, with almost 1.500 units, beating its executive arch-rival, the Mercedes C350e, by a sizeable amount.

The remaining Top 5 position went to another BMW, with the i3 managing to beat the Tesla models and stay at #5.

In the manufacturers ranking, we have a surprise in the Top Spot, with BMW in the lead, with 23% share, followed by Nissan (21%) and Mitsubishi (15%).

In 2017 Fuel Cells had their Year One on the UK market, with just 10 units being registered, with the Toyota Mirai registering eight of them. 

PlUKMarch 2017%Pl. '16
1Nissan Leaf9982.459202
2Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV7061.930151
3
4
5

BMW 330e
Mercedes C350e
BMW i3
Others
303
191
275
1.709
1.469
1.052
933
4.683
12
8
7
38
4
2
5


TOTAL4.18212.526100

Saturday, August 12, 2017

When will the Tesla Model 3 arrive to Europe?

Image result for tesla model 3 in the snow

When i read that international deliveries of the Tesla Model 3 would only start in "Late 2018", i wasn't much surprised, because it has been the usual Tesla MO on earlier launches (First Tesla Model S arrived in Europe one year after, in June 2013, with volume numbers starting in September, same timing for the Model X in 2016), the surprising part was the "Late" word, which could mean Q4 2018, a quarter later than usual.

Anti-selling Tesla strategy? Or is it some substance into it?

After reading this article, i realized the possible reason for this delay in international deliveries, so with Tesla having right now 134.000 units registered in the USA until July, some 20.000 Model S & X are expected to be delivered until year end, so we get 154.000 units by the end of Q4.

Add the expected 20-30.000 2017 deliveries from the Model 3, and we have Tesla only 15-25.000 units away from the 200.000 units phase-out process in December, 31st.

At this point, and depending if the difference will be closer to 15k or 25k, Tesla will have two choices to proceed:

A) Goes all out in Q1 to reach the 200k as soon as possible, so it can have the better part of Q1 and the subsequent Q2 to deliver as much Model 3 as possible in the USA, so their customers can profit from the full $7.500 federal tax credit;

B) Manages deliveries so that it only passes the 200k mark in the first days of April, so that it has two full quarters (Q2 and Q3) with the full tax credit.

I don't think even Elon Musk himself knows how this will rollout, many things can go wrong, or not, so the international launch will depend on the production ramp up of the Model 3, if all goes well and they proceed with the A) scenario, then first deliveries abroad should happen in Q3, with volume numbers happening in Q4 2018.

If something delays the ramp up and the B) scenario occurs, then expect first overseas deliveries to happen only in Q4, with volumes increasing during the first months of 2019.

Long story short, the expected "Late 2018" arrival to Europe is ambiguous enough to cover a Q3 2018 launch on the A scenario, or Q4 in the most pessimistic B scenario.



Friday, August 11, 2017

Canada June 2017(& July Preview)


Image result for chevrolet bolt canada

Record Month

Canada's plug-in market continues on fire, with a record 1.781 new registrations being made in June, up 63%YoY, with the YTD EV Share crossing north of 0.7% share. 

Will we see this market breach the 1% barrier for the first time in September? I wouldn't bet against it.

With the Volt comfortably seated on the Best Seller seat, Chevrolet should have been focused in delivering its new baby, the Bolt, but with only 169 deliveries last month (Third drop in a row), Chevy's BEV model seems to have hit a deliveries bottleneck, let's hope that in the second half of the year, GM finally decides to allocate enough units to satisfy demand.

Looking at the remaining models, good month for Tesla, with both models above 200 units, allowing them to win Silver and Bronze in June, while the Model X climbed to Fourth in the YTD chart, changing places with the Nissan Leaf.

The Chrysler Pacifica PHEV climbed ont position to #8, while the Hyundai Ioniq Electric joined the Top 10, thanks to 92 deliveries, the Korean importer seems to have been awarded with enough units that could allow the BEV model to reach #6 by year end. 

Also shining is the Ford Focus Electric (Yes, that same one), with 65(!!) units, its second monthly record in a row(!), allowing it to climb to #12, its highest standing anywhere.

In the manufacturers ranking, Chevrolet has its leadership secured, with 37% share, followed by Tesla (20%) and Nissan (9%). 

Looking into July preliminary results, the big news was the impressive performance of the Nissan Leaf, with 148 units, its best result in 11 months, not bad for a model that is in the end of its life cycle, losing only to the Chevrolet Volt (231 units), that strangely enough, had its worst result in 17 months... 

Adding to the disappointing performance from Chevrolet, the Bolt has once again dropped deliveries (117 units), something that should start worrying GM's Canadian branch. As for Toyota, the local importer provided 98 units (Quebec-Only data), once production catched up with demand, we could see it in the Top 10 soon.


PlCanadaJuneYTD%
1Chevrolet Volt3471.99826
2Chevrolet Bolt 16986611
3Tesla Model S20479110
4Tesla Model X20176010
5
6
7
8
9
Nissan Leaf
Audi A3 e-Tron
Kia Soul EV
Chr. Pacifica PHEV
Volvo XC90 PHEV
125
61
59
57
33
711
314
300
260
247
9
4
4
3
3
10
11
Hyun. Ioniq Electric
Por. Cayenne PHEV
92
48
209
173
3
2
12
13
14
Ford Focus Electric
BMW X5 PHEV
Toyota Prius Prime
65
26
144
172
148
144
2
2
2
15
16
BMW i3
Ford Fusion Ener. e)
34
14
133
65
2
1
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
27
27
30
Ford C-Max  Ener. e)
BMW i8
BMW 330e
Volkswagen e-Golf
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Mercedes GLE550e
Mercedes S550e
BMW 740e
Hyun. Sonata PHEV
Mini Count. PHEV
P. Panamera Plug-In
Chevrolet Spark EV
Cadillac ELR
Smart Fortwo ED
17
12
18
39
6
3
2
1
2
1



1
63
53
51
39
35
26
17
13
12
7
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

TOTAL1.7817.618100

Source: Greencarreports


Tesla Model S & Others


Pl
Model
June
Sales  
1
 Mercedes E/CLS-Class
352
2
         BMW 5-Series
262
3
Tesla Model S
204
4
Audi A6
102
5
Mercedes S-Class
99

Looking at the E-Segment/full-size vehicles, the top two continue in their usual positions, with the Model S collecting another Bronze Medal, but below it, the remaining competition is being left behind, with the #4 Audi A6 registering only 102 units.

SUV-Mania, anyone?


Tesla Model X & Others



Pl
Model
June Sales  
1
Mercedes GLE
759
2
BMW X5
546
3
Audi Q7
478
4
Jaguar F-Pace
270
5
6
7
Range Rover Sport
Volvo XC90
Tesla Model X
246
208
201


In this SUV-heavy market, the Tesla Model X still hasn't put a foot in the door, with the 201 deliveries in June allowing it only a Seventh Spot. The SUV from California has to improve significantly its all-time record (238 units, in September '16), if it really wants to replicate the Model S success in its class.