Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Luxembourg September 2017





Tesla Model S ahead in Models, BMW leads in Manufacturers

Luxembourg took their time to catch the EV Train, but now is charging full speed ahead, 753 new EV's were registered in 2017, doubling the result in the whole year of 2016, with the PEV Share jumping from 0.6% to the current 1.9%, being the fifth highest share among EU members. If growth continues this fast (Up 230% YoY), it won't be long until the Grand Duchy becomes #2 among the EU. 

The 2016 Best Seller Tesla Model S continues in the lead, with a personal best of 76 units, but only 10% share, as this is one of the most fragmented markets worldwide. BMW has a strong presence, with three models in the top 6 positions, (#2 330e, #5 225xe AT, #6 i3), while the Third Placed Mercedes GLC350e is replicating here the success experienced in other European markets.

It is a bit surprising the low positions of the BMW i3 (#6) and Renault Zoe (#7), respectively the Third and First most common EV's in this country, while on the rookie side, the BMW 530e is the Best Seller, in Eleventh with 27 units, while the recently introduced Smart Fortwo ED is also proving to be popular (#17, with 14 units).

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BMW leads the way (32%), followed by Tesla (17%) and Mercedes (12%), while Volkswagen (10%) is not far off the podium positions.

Pl
Luxembourg
Sep.
  2017
     %Pl '16
1Tesla Model S67610
1
2BMW 330e161
8
20
3Mercedes GLC350e9598
16
4Tesla Model X7557
11
5
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
1547
4
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
15
17
18
19
19

BMW i3
Renault Zoe
Volvo XC90 T8
Volkswagen Passat GTE
BMW X5 40e
BMW 530e
Porsche Panamera PHEV
Volkswagen Golf GTE
Audi A3 e-Tron
BMW 740e
Mini Countryman PHEV
Smart Fortwo ED
Volkswagen e-Up!
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
Nissan Leaf
Others
1
2
1
1

2
2
8
5
3

5
3


16
41
38
37
31
29
27
24
23
21
15
15
14
13
11
11
98
6
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
13
2
3
6
12
12
N/A
28
5
20
25
N/A
N/A
12
N/A
12


TOTAL73753100


Saturday, October 21, 2017

And the 2017 Best Seller is...

Image result for Tesla Model S vs Prius Prime


...Complicated.

I don't think we have ever seen such tight races going into the last Quarter, as will be shown in the upcoming September World Top 10 article, the race for this year best selling model has three models separated by less than 2.000 units (Tesla Model S and Prius Prime, both at 39k units, with BAIC EC-Series - 38k units. All provisional numbers).

And the Fourth Placed is not far behind, with 36k, but because it is the Nissan Leaf and its Q4 will be no man's land, due to the transitional period into the new generation (Arrives in October to Japan, but first units only arrive in the US in December and in the case of Europe, in January), sales will suffer, so we can already discard it from the race.

So, back to the Top 3.

The Tesla Model S and Prius Prime are running neck to neck (Less than 200 units difference) to end September in Number one, with the Californian beating its all-time record and registering some 8.100 units last month, which means the Model 3 introduction not only didn't hurt sales, but actually helped to increase them.

We will only know the Japan sales of the Prius later in the month (Usually it's the last market to show data), but aside from a surprise deliveries surge, the Japanese hatchback is suffering from production constraints and hasn't yet released its full potential, running at 4.000-something units per month, when it could possibly reach some 10.000/month (It's record month was May, with 7.600 units).

So Toyota could win the 2017 Best Selling model title, IF it pushes the production of its PHEV forward. 

Now...Are they able/willing to do it?

But let's talk about the Dark Horse in the race, the BAIC EC-Series, in less than 12 months in the market, BAIC's first dedicated EV stirred the local market and has already sold over 42.000 units, being its already in its 2.0 version, thanks to an increase in the original range, from 180 to 200 kms, which originated a sales surge, jumping from 2.5k deliveries in June, to September's 9k, a new all-time record for a single model anywhere in the world.

Considering that the Chinese PEV market usually ends the years on a high note, it wouldn't be surprising if the little city could replicate those 9.000 registrations in the remaing months of the year, pulling their sales to some 65.000 units.

Considering the likely Q4 results of the Top 2 being some 14.000 units for the Model S and 16.000 for the Prius Prime, we would have the following 2017 podium:

1. BAIC EC-Series (65.000)

2. Toyota Prius Prime/PHEV (55.000)

3. Tesla Model S (53.000)

A surprising podium, not only because of the Prius, coming from almost 0 to Second Place, but mainly because, for the first time ever, a Chinese model would win the trophy, with the added surprise of  not coming from the BYD stable.

Image result for BYD
BYD Song
Speaking of BYD...What about the manufacturers ranking?

Things are also interesting, if not so tight.

In theory, we have three constestants to the Best Selling Manufacturer trophy, with Tesla in the lead, with 73.000 units, followed by BYD at 69.000 and BMW, with 66.000.

In reality, i doubt BMW will be able to follow the other two, despite having reached for the first time the five digit mark in September, with little over 10k, the truth is that the German carmaker lacks BYD's consistency while Tesla is 7k ahead and with the Model 3 kicking up sales, it shouldn't pose any threat to the US automaker too. 

Reaching the 100.000 mark this year would already be a big win for BMW.

So that leaves us with Tesla and BYD.

Regarding Tesla Q4 results, besides the Model S usual good form (14k units), the Model X should have above average results, thanks to the possible fiscal changes in Norway, which could mean a sales peak for this model in that market, so i'm guessing some 13.000 deliveries in the last quarter.

Add some 5.000 units coming from a Model 3 trying to leave Production Hell, and we have some 32.000 units being registered in Q4 2017, equalling to 105.000 units delivered this year.

What about BYD?

With the ambitious goals for this year (200k sales) now a thing of the past due to a miserable Q1, with only 9.000 deliveries, BYD is back on track and slowly improving month after month (Their own Production Hell?), having reached 11.800 units in September. If this slow production ramp up continues into December, we can see it deliver some 37.000 units in Q4, ending the year with 106.000 units. 

So, the final tally of the year would be:

1. BYD (106.000)

2. Tesla (105.000)

3. BMW (100.000)

Considering the small difference between BYD and Tesla, and unlike the models race, where we predict the Dark Horse stealing the show, in the manufacturers ranking it's really an open race, especially considering both brands are production constrained and will depend more on their ability to increase production output than actual demand.


Friday, October 20, 2017

Austria September 2017

Image result for renault zoe vs bmw i3 austria

Renault and BMW run for Number One

Austrian plug-in sales are up 43% YoY to over 5.000 new EV's in 2017, placing the PEV Share at new record heights (1.9%). 

The good thing about this market is that it is a BEV-heavy market, with all-electric cars representing 76% of sales. When governments play the incentives cards right, good things like these (Large share and growth) happen.

Looking at the models ranking, the leader Renault Zoe has the BMW i3 at a safe distance, while the German hot hatch is also comfortable at the runner-up spot.

The same can't be said about the Third Placed Tesla Model S, because the VW e-Golf is benefitting from the new 36kWh battery deliveries (111 last month, new personal record), to climb the ranking and endangering Tesla's Bronze Medal.

In the manufacturers ranking, BMW and Renault (Both have 21% Share) are running neck to neck, for now the German automaker is ahead by 26 units, so anything can happen until year end.

In Third Place Tesla (14%) is looking on the rearviewmirror at a recovering Volkswagen (11%), surfing the wave of the e-Golf sales surge. 

PlAustriaSep.YTD%'16Pl
1Renault Zoe681.132211
2
3
4
BMW i3
Tesla Model S
Volkswagen e-Golf
90
49
111
778
462
383
14
9
7
2
3
4
5
Nissan Leaf
3228255
6Tesla Model X39267510
7
8
9
10
10
12
13
14
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
BMW X5 40e   e)
Kia Soul EV
Mercedes GLC350e  e) 
BMW 225xe Active Tourer e)
Mercedes B250e
Audi Q7 e-Tron e)
Volkswagen e-Up!
25
20
18
25
15
8
8
9
255
167
164
134
134
128
115
81
5
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
27
23
8
31
9
6
7
15
15Porsche Panamera PHEV e)20
80
1
35
16Mitsu. Outlander PHEV  e)1073114
17
Volvo XC90 T8 e)5
66
1
11
18
Mercedes E350e   e)10
55
1
N/A
19
Mini Countryman PHEV e)15
54
1
N/A
20

Mercedes C350e   e)
Others
5
86
48
444
1
8
12


TOTAL6725.295100

Source: http://myampera.wordpress.com

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

China September 2017

Image result for 2018 BYD Qin DM 100 





(Yet Another) Record Month



The rise and rise of the Chinese PEV market seems unstoppable, with another record performance in September, with 59.000 new passenger plug-ins being registered last month in China, growing 80% regarding the same month last year, pulling the YTD count to over 338.000 units, up 48% YoY.



As consequence of this, the PEV market share is at record level, with 1.8% share, firmly ahead of last year score (1.5%), as sales are expected to grow even further until the end of the year, the Chinese PEV market is sure to surpass the 2% share by year end.



This is still a highly protected market, where 94% of sales belong to domestic brands. Of the 6% left for foreign brands, 4% belong to Tesla, 1% to BMW, with the remaining 1% being divided by all other auto makers.



In September, small city cars remained popular, with the EC-Series beating the monthly record, with over 8.400 deliveries, with a second BYD (Qin PHEV) joining the Song PHEV in this month Top 5.





Here’s September Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:


Image result for white BAIC EC180

#1 – BAIC EC-Series: A consistent seller this year, the EC-Series, formerly known as EC180, last month improved its already impressive August result (6.726 units), by registering 8.419 units, a new all-time high for a single model anywhere in the world. The little city EV owes its success to a trendy design, reminding that of a Crossover, improved specs (Now with 200 kms range) and competitive price (19.000€). Will it be enough to win the 2017 Best Seller award? Right now it is the most likely winner, which will be a first for BAIC, and with ever growing sales, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was the first EV to reach five-digits in one month.


 Image result for white Zhidou D2 EV

#2 – Zhidou D2 EV: Bare-basics city vehicle that doesn’t inspire anyone, but continues to be delivered in record quantities (5.084 units in September, new pb), probably due to fleet deals. This vehicle is sold as a Quadricycle (Think Renault Twizy) in some European countries, with the following specs: 12 kWh battery, 120 kms range, 90 kms max. speed, all this for some 16.000€. The brand has ambitious plans to market it as a car-sharing vehicle in Europe, but will local consumers want to drive it?


Image result for white BYD Song PHEV

#3 – BYD Song PHEV: This is BYD’s “Model Y”, a VW Tiguan-sized SUV, here in plug-in hybrid version, last month it registered 3.745 units, dropping some 400 units regarding the previous month. Production constraints or is demand already fading? I believe the full potential of this version should be around 5.000 units/month, adding some 2.000 units from the BEV version, it should be enough to have the Song singing to the tune of 7.000 units/month, both versions counted.



Image result for 2018 byd qin dm
#4 – BYD Qin PHEV: Thanks to a recently increased range (100 kms), BYD’s sports sedan (0-100 kms/h in 5.9s) recovered its mojo and had 3.554 units registrations in September, the nameplate’s best result in over two years. With a competitive price (31.000$ before incentives) and full access to government incentives, sales are expected to remain high, as long as BYD manages to make enough of them, in order to satisfy demand.


Image result for 2018 chery eq

#5 – Chery eQ: The little electric Chery delivered 2.652 units in September, allowing it to reach the Top 5. A popular choice among city dwellers, for 24.200$ before incentives, you get a fairly funky city car, with the 22kWh battery providing decent range (200 kms), and the engine giving just enough power (57 hp), so that it doesn’t feel underpowered.



 
Roewe eRX5

  

Year-to-Date Ranking – BYD Qin PHEV jumps six positions



In a stable market, we have to go all the way down to #14 in order to see a significant change, with the BYD Qin PHEV jumping six positions, while the other significant news is the Roewe eRX5 BEV joining the Top 20, thanks to 1.940 units (new pb).



The remaining positions haven’t seem much action, but there were some personal records being broken across the ranking, besides the aforementioned BAIC EC-Series, Zhidou D2 EV and Roewe eRX5 BEV performances, another model also broke its personal best: The JAC iEV6S registered 3.021 units, more than it had delivered in the whole year of 2016.



Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (19%, down 1%) is comfortable at the Throne, keeping the former leader BAIC (15%) at a safe distance. At least for now.



In Third Place we have Zhidou, with 10% share, with Roewe in its tail (8%, down 1%), with the Shanghai-based manufacturer trying to reach the podium, in its bid to become the Third of China’s “Big 3 PEV” club.



Pl
China
Sept.
YTD
%
1
BAIC EC-Series
8419
37152
11
2
Zhidou D2 EV
5084
32591
10
3
BYD Song PHEV
3745
19846
6
4
BYD e5
2288
18263
5
5
Geely Emgrand EV
2437
16248
5
6
JAC iEV6S
3021
15724
5
7
Chery eQ  
2652
14766
4
8
SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV
1437
13449
4
9
Changan Benni EV   e)
2586
11743
3
10
BYD Tang
1077
10461
3
11
JMC E100
1693
10417
3
12
Zotye E200
1167
9263
3
13
BAIC EU-Series
234
8244
2
14
BYD Qin PHEV
3554
7835
2
15
Tesla Model S   e)
364
6159
2
16
Tesla Model X   e)
514
5978
2
17
JMC E200
540
5587
2
18
Zotye Cloud EV
684
5564
2
19
SAIC Roewe eRX5 BEV
1940
4827
1
20
BYD Qin EV300
115
4646
1
Others
15435
79247

TOTAL
58986
338010